Lessons From The WSOP

I am not a poker player. Sure, I have played a few neighborhood games here and there…won some, lost some, but I certainly do not consider myself even an amateur player. When you are playing for nickels, dimes, and quarters it really doesn’t matter. I do like to watch the World Series of Poker, however. I am fascinated by the ability of the top players to assess and act on each situation so quickly. There is some luck, to be sure, but over the course of a tournament the best players usually win. It got me thinking about why they are so good at taking advantage of “lesser” players. Here is what I have come up with:

Data: The best players know the odds of winning every hand, all the time. It is very rare that you will see a poker professional make a mistake based on the data at their disposal. The information is available to everyone, but the best know what to do with the data and usually act accordingly.

Know Their Competition: There is a lot of talk about being able to “read” another player, but it is more than seeing a facial expression, tick, or change in behavior. The professionals look at betting patterns and changes in those patterns. They realize that the data available to them goes way beyond the calculated odds of winning a hand. They look at both the quantitative and qualitative information accumulated over a period of time and use it to beat their competition. These “tells” give them a distinct advantage over their competition.

Exploit & Mitigate: Kenny Rogers got it right when he sang, “You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em.” With the accumulation of data (quantitative and qualitative), the best players will exploit their competition when the timing is right, but they will also mitigate their losses by getting out of a hand. It is as much fun to watch a player fold his/her hand just when it looks like they are heading for a big loss, as it is to watch them take advantage of a lesser opponent and take the pot.

They Have a System: The best players use a system. Some are very aggressive, while others are more conservative. Some will play a hand, while others decide to fold with identical cards. Some are very vocal, while others are quiet. Some are emotional, while others remain cool. There is not a right or wrong, but the top players all have a system that works for them. It is very rare that a good player will let his/her emotions dictate their play. When players “meltdown”, it is usually because they have abandoned their system.

They Manage Their Resources: Amateur players will very often lose sight of their resources, inevitable leading to a “bad beat” or a “bust”. Pro’s will very rarely make the same mistake. They lose hands. That is the nature of the game. They will not typically, however, overplay a hand. The result is that their resources last longer, offering them more opportunities…additional hands to play.

Ebbs & Flows: The previous point about managing resources is important because the top players understand the natural ebbs and flows of the game. Some players get hot, while others get cold. This is true for even the best players. By managing their resources, the professionals get to works through these patterns, accumulate more data, and act when the timing is right.

They Eliminate Biases: Because they are so adept at analyzing each situation, the professionals eliminate biases from their thought processes. Inevitably, each player will have to deal with someone they don’t like, or where there is some history. The best players will remove the historical bias and only focus on the present situation. They will absolutely use historical knowledge, but they will remove the “noise” from their analysis.

Now consider those companies that are great at managing channel relationships. Every one of them shares the same qualities of the best players. By the way, you can apply these same points to any superior sports team, company, charity, non-profit, or politician. I didn’t include “passion” in my list because I think that even amateurs can have passion. Certainly all of the best companies, sports teams, politicians, etc. all have passion for what they do.

Would love to hear your thoughts on this list and any other qualities that you would like to contribute.

Ch...Ch...Changes

I am frequently asked about the best way to measure the relationship between a vendor and their channel partners. It is not uncommon for companies to try to assess the relative strength or weakness of their channel relationships by looking at a single point in time. For instance, they may look at total revenue, margin, market share, share of wallet, or number of customers to gauge the value of the relationship(s). Relationships, however, are not static. Every relationship has ebbs and flows, which should dictate how you manage them at any given moment. To effectively market to your channel partners, you need to carefully consider the following:

CHANGE: This is perhaps the simplest calculation. Basically, you take two points in time (A and B) and look at what has changed during that elapsed period of time. Has revenue or profitability increased or decreased? Have we gained share of wallet? So while it is good to know your revenue at a single point in time, it is better to understand whether or not revenue has increased during a period of time.

VELOCITY: Velocity considers the rate of change. For example, let’s say that during a period of time, Partner X increased revenue from 100,000 to 150,000. Calculating the change would tell you that there was a $50,000 increase in sales. During the same period of time, Partner Y increased revenue from $25,000 to $75,000…also a $50,000 increase in sales. While both Partners increased sales by the same absolute amount ($50,000), the velocity was quite different.

ACCELERATION: Acceleration considers the rate of change in velocity. This metric offers an effective way to measure specific actions taken to affect velocity. For instance, let’s assume that a Partner relationship has turned sour and, as a result, there has been a decline in revenue over a period of time. In fact, over multiple periods of time, revenue has declined at an increasing rate. To mitigate the downward spiral, you implement an aggressive program designed to re-engage the Partner. By examining the rate of change in velocity, you can effectively measure the effects of the program.

The “scientific” and ongoing management of channel performance data is essential, because it will help formulate the most effective initiatives to either mitigate or exploit current opportunities. To me, the biggest challenge is to consider multiple variables simultaneously. In the above examples, we only considered one variable…revenue. While this is ok to illustrate the principles, it is not realistic, however, as there are many variables to consider. The “new” channel marketing model should be to effectively measure the change, velocity, and acceleration of multiple variables simultaneously and quickly implement effective campaigns to take advantage of what the data tells us.

If you want to know the strength of each of your channel partner relationships, you need more than a “picture” or single snapshot in time. You have to know and understanding how the relationship is changing, why it is changing, and how quickly it is changing. Companies that are able to gather and analyze this data will be in the advantageous position of building stronger and profitable relationships with their partners.